Archive | March, 2017

Brexit the day after: on the stairs

30 Mar

So I’m sitting in the cafe in St James Park, looking out towards Whitehall – the pulsating heart of British Government. I’m wondering how many of my former civil service colleagues are suffering from ‘Divorce Separation Blues’ (Avett Brothers).

And why ‘on the stairs’? It seems to me the relationship between Britain and the EU is rather like going to a party. We were reluctant to go to this particular gig – we thought the vibes might be better elsewhere (EFTA anyone?), and we were worried they wouldn’t let our friends come in with us (viz, sheep from New Zealand). Then eventually we said we’d go on certain conditions (‘It all depends on the terms – H. Wilson).

No sooner had we arrived than we had a quick vote on whether to stay, and ever since we got in we’ve been complaining about the food, the drink, the other guests, and how the party is organised.

Now we’ve decided to leave to explore the world, and we’re on the stairs on the way to the exit door. Will we have second thoughts? – apparently the guy who drafted Article 50 doesn’t share the common view its irrevocable. But more to the point, will the other guests ever let such a arkwark fellow back in?

Perhaps De Gaulle was right when he described us as a ‘maritime nation’ ill suited to join his European party?

Can Scotland remain in the EU?

14 Mar

‘Up to a point, Lord Copper’, as Evelyn Waugh’s famous journalist might have said.

But let’s start at the beginning. As Parliament clears the way for Article 50 to be triggered, Nicola Sturgeon is requesting a second referendum on Scottish independence – with a promise that, if she wins, she will keep Scotland in the EU.

Is that possible? Wouldn’t an ‘independent Scotland’ have to join the queue of countries lining up to join the EU? Well, the Scottish Government has an alternative solution – just don’t leave the European Economic Area (EEA) in the first place.

Doh…now you’ve pulled a fast one. You’ve switched from talking about the EU to the EEA – what’s the difference? Well, the EEA Treaty signatories are the members of the EU and the members of EFTA, and leaving the EEA is a separate legal process to leaving the EU. It is open to debate whether this would be an option for the UK – see some of my earlier posts – but it could make sense for Scotland, particularly since the EEA Treaty has some provisions for differential treatment of regions within signatory countries. So Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government, if they won a referendum, could say ‘when you give notice of your intention to leave the EEA, please exclude Scotland’.

Now it has to be said the legal eagles think this is impractical – see the LSE blog at http://bit.ly/2no1wwX for example. But it does raise some interesting points. If Scotland can do it, what about other areas that were strongly ‘Remain’ – London, for example, and Northern Ireland?

And for the Scottish Government, it’s beautiful politics and possibly good economics. A Scotland inside the EEA when the rest of the UK is outside could be quite attractive to some businesses south of the border. Financial services, in particular, might well find a base (or an expanded base) in Edinburgh quite appealing.

Triggering Article 50 is beginning to look like opening Pandora’s Box.

 

 

 

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